JPMorgan uses a proprietary economic model to forecast the probability of a recession.
It's an inquiry the economics team at JPMorgan receives frequently. And it's a good question when you consider the US's current economic expansion is already the second-longest of the postwar era.
Luckily for curious minds, JPMorgan maintains a model designed to provide the probability of a recession over periods of one, two, and three years.
Putting it to work, the firm found an 18% chance of an economic meltdown over the next year, increasing to 52% over two years and to 72% over three...